SpaceX’s Starship changes everything. When launch costs drop from $10,000/kg to under $200/kg, business models that were pure science fiction become investable.
The first wave of space investing focused on launch. The second wave, now underway, is about what you do once you’re up there.
The New Economics
Cheap, reliable launch creates a cascade of opportunity:
Satellite constellations at scale: LEO constellations are no longer limited by launch costs. The constraint shifts to satellite manufacturing and spectrum management. Companies that can build and operate thousands of satellites efficiently are the new infrastructure plays.
In-orbit services: When satellites cost more to build than to launch, keeping them operational longer makes economic sense. We’re seeing serious ventures in satellite servicing, debris removal, and life extension—the “AAA roadside assistance” of space.
Space stations as platforms: The ISS era of government-funded research stations is ending. Commercial stations designed as platforms for manufacturing, research, and tourism are in development with credible timelines.
Investable Verticals
Earth Observation 2.0
The first generation of Earth observation was about imagery—satellites taking pictures. The next generation is about intelligence: real-time monitoring, change detection, and predictive analytics. Winners will combine novel sensor types with AI-driven analysis.
Space-Based Connectivity
Starlink proved the model. The opportunity now is in specialized connectivity: IoT networks, maritime and aviation services, and backup systems for critical infrastructure. Direct-to-device satellite connectivity could disrupt traditional mobile networks.
Orbital Manufacturing
Microgravity enables manufacturing processes impossible on Earth. Early applications in pharmaceutical crystal growth and fiber optic production show promise. The challenge is developing automated manufacturing systems that can operate reliably without human intervention.
Cislunar Infrastructure
The Moon is the next frontier, driven by NASA’s Artemis program and growing commercial interest. Companies building lunar landing systems, surface operations equipment, and Earth-Moon logistics are positioning for a market that barely exists today but could be substantial by 2030.
Risks and Reality Checks
Space investing isn’t for the faint-hearted:
- Long timelines: Hardware companies take years to reach revenue. Investors need patience.
- Regulatory complexity: Launch licenses, spectrum rights, and export controls create barriers.
- Technical risk: Space is hard. Failures are public and expensive.
That said, the opportunity set has never been better. Launch costs are low enough, technology mature enough, and commercial demand strong enough that the space economy is finally moving from speculative to investable.
Where We Focus
We look for space companies where:
- The unit economics work at current launch prices (not hypothetical future prices)
- There’s a clear path to meaningful revenue within 3-4 years
- The team has relevant operational experience, not just impressive credentials
The space economy is real. The question for investors is picking the right entry points—and having the conviction to hold through the inevitable setbacks.